Could the golf renaissance that has resurrected the game since early 2020 finally be winding down?
Time will tell.
According to Golf Datatech, rounds played across the country were down in October 1.8 percent, compared with the same month in 2020, which brought record rounds to golf courses across the country. That might not sound like much, especially since golfers were turning out in record numbers a year ago, but the October numbers signalled the fourth consecutive month of decreasing rounds played.
Year-over-year rounds played were down 8 percent in September, 7 percent in August and 4 percent in July. Stopping that fall was a whopping 0.4 percent climb in play in June.
As the numbers are trending in the wrong direction, one industry analyst believes this year continues to be filled with good news for golf.
"(This is an) expected correction from an unusual baseline year," said Jim Koppenhaver of Pellucid Corp. "I've been surprised that the deficit vs. last year is as shallow" as it's been."
For the year, rounds played still are up 7 percent for the first 10 months of the year. But all of that is a long way from the good news in May that included an 18 percent year-over-year increase in rounds played for the month and cumulative gains of 33 percent covering the first five months of the year. In May, 40 states showed an increase in rounds played. In October, a total of 33 states showed a decrease in rounds.
Despite the recent downturn, Koppenhaver expects year-to-date rounds to hang on and outpace last year once data for the final two months of the year becomes available.
"The more interesting fact is that we're currently projecting that '21 will beat '20 for the year so basically the gains we got in, primarily Q2, have been strong enough to keep a positive balance even in the face of the declines since July," he said. "Things are looking pretty rosy for '21 from where I sit."
With two consecutive years of dramatic increases in play, is there any indication whether that good news will continue in 2022, or will golf begin a retraction to pre-Covid norms?
"There's really nothing reliable or consistent in our information and insights arsenal," Kooppenhaver said. "I had forecast that this year would give back about 50 percent of last year's gains, and it turns out that we're going to beat last year, so that speaks to the fact that I don't have any unique knowledge on this subject. I'm encouraged that, A: we retained the elevated rounds, and B: that golf revenue also moved up slightly, posting a better increase than the rounds alone. I think part of the contribution this year was continuing Covid concerns and restrictions. And who knows where that will be in '22?"