Three years ago, the Arizona Republic had a daily circulation of 286,000. According to some published reports, circulation statistics for the Phoenix newspaper plummeted to 164,000 by 2015. Those dramatic losses are a snapshot of an industry struggling to maintain relevance amid shifting demographics and changing consumer behaviors.
Sound familiar?
Despite the warning signs that its days were numbered, the newspaper business has been left like a three-wheeled minivan navigating the Indy 500 while digital media whiz by in a blur.
Golf, to a lesser degree, is struggling to remain relevant as certain demographic groups, namely millennials, women, youth and minorities, find other things to do with their time. Unlike newspapers, which are destined for their eventual place in history alongside 8-track tapes and Betamax players, golf can be saved. Or, some of it, at least.
The game's major economic indicators - i.e., number of golfers, course supply and rounds played - have been, with the occasional exception, on a steady decline during the past decade as people find other ways to occupy their leisure time.
Initiatives designed to grow the game by promoting pace of play, offering a clutch of lessons at a discounted rate or bringing the game to urban areas have, by and large, failed on a national scale to move the needle on participation.
To wit, the game lost 900,000 players last year and 1.3 million during the past two years. The number of people in the game (just under 22 million) is the lowest since at least the mid 1980s, and some industry analysts project that number will drop below 20 million for the first time in forever. As a result, a net 993 courses (in 18-hole equivalents) have been shed since 2006, and we're not done.
Numbers like this make finding the bottom of the golf market a challenge, largely because the game was healthier 10 years ago when industry analysts projected that as many as 2,000 courses must be cut from the herd to find equilibrium. A decade ago, there were 4.5 million more golfers than there are now, and 8 million more 15 years ago. If golfers continue to leave the game at this pace, a lot more than 2,000 courses will have to close before anyone can mention the word rebound. Suffice to say, no one knows for sure where the bottom is, or when we will get there.
Newspaper publishers, seemingly at a loss for how to meet the challenges facing their industry, appear convinced a solution somehow still includes printing a physical newspaper. Rather than find a solution that offers customers what they want, the newspaper business is intent on selling what it has, even if no one (or at least fewer and fewer people) wants it. Publishers have responded by gutting newsrooms and compromising the quality of an-already obsolete product. It's a death spiral with no way out.
Golf, in a way, is guilty of the same line of thinking. Too many are convinced the answer to golf's problems include five hours and 18 holes. That might be fine for the private club model, but likely won't fly in the public sector.
Common objections to the game are well documented: it takes too long, the atmosphere is too stuffy, the game is not friendly or inviting to newcomers, it's too expensive, it's too hard. Indeed, a game that suffers from a stereotype of catering to old, white men, is being propped up largely by that demographic.
Given these criticisms, it seems unlikely that the game will self-correct in the face of shifting demographics without offering something new or different, but real change can occur only at the facility level, not in response to an industry initiative.
Courting women, millennials and minorities will mean non-traditional offerings. If someone wants to play three, five or seven holes, devise short loops that allow for that and find a way to charge for it. Golf Boards, one of the new items on display at this year's GIS, and four-passenger golf carts with USB ports - yes, they do exist - might make traditionalists cringe, but can help attract a whole new demographic. Once viewed as a gimmick, footgolf is now helping drive revenue at 450 courses in 48 states and Washington, D.C., according to the American Footgolf League.
Golf has endured for more than 500 years, so the game itself isn't going anywhere anytime soon, but nearly 1,000 courses during the past decade already have gone the way of defunct newspapers like the Rocky Mountain News and the Honolulu Advertiser, with hundreds, if not thousands still to follow. The question isn't if another course will close; the question is who's next?